By now, if you live anywhere in Kenya, you have a
sneaking suspicion about who’s going to win the presidential election.
Now, having said that, it’s time for some of us to get
our heads out of the sand.
Yeah, I’m specifically addressing those of you that
are supporting Peter Kenneth for President. I know you mean well, and the man
is photogenic and he makes sense when he’s talking about the issues blah blah
blah.
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| "Yeah, and I'm more handsome than Kalonzo, no?" |
But only one of two men will become president after
this election.
Raila Odinga or Uhuru
Kenyatta.
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| "I'm totally dyeing my hair black!" |
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| "My fellow Kenyans... this feels damn good!" |
Anyone voting for any of the other candidates please
note that I’ve kind of ignored you. Don’t bother waking up on March 4. It will
not help. Seriously.
Unless you’re going to vote for Mwalimu Abdouba Dida.
That would be a serious vote against the status quo if there ever was one. It
would also be good for shits and giggles.
Peter Kenneth comes across as a sober, articulate
candidate with a decent grasp on the issues. He carries no tribal baggage,
which is kind of refreshing in a political scene in which candidates for
whatever position are first judged on account of what tribe they belong to.
He has acquitted himself quite well in his performance
as MP for Gatanga for the last decade, and I’m pretty sure that as Assistant
Minister over the same period, he’s done a pretty stand up job too.
When Barack Obama, a first term US Senator from Illinois
announced his bid for the White House, it made for a nice, feel good story. But
no one really believed that this young blood with a “… dude, that’s a weird name...” could actually go beyond the
Democratic primaries.
But a number of factors served to propel his campaign,
chief among them being that after two terms of being led by George W. Bush, his
failed economic policies and his cowboy approach to the small matter of the war
in Iraq, America was ready for change.
Also, John McCain was an old
man and America was afraid he might die in office and be succeeded by Sarah
Palin!
Oh, and if you’ve just woken up from a coma, Obama did
become President of The United States.
But can Peter Kenneth pull an Obama in Kenya?
Hardly likely.
You see, the political situation in this country right
now is not ripe for what his candidature stands for. I think his biggest
problem is the perceived success of President Kibaki’s presidency. This
president took over when Kenya’s economy was in a shambles, and in ten years he
has been able to turn that around. And while many Kenyans are yet to realize
the full potential of the fruits of our economy, we’re generally in a better
place than we’ve been in a long while.
We have more money in our pockets, we have been able
to access credit to start small jua kali
businesses, we are laying the ground for better infrastructure, etc. We’re in a
good place and even though we’re not quite where we feel we should be, we’re
definitely on our way there. Kibaki has seen to that.
So, are we really looking for someone to come and save
us from… something?
Not… really.
What people actually want is someone who will not rock
the boat. Not that Kenneth will do that. Far from it. But the hard truth is
that he is an untested quantity nationally, and right now voters will go for a
familiar face. Someone who promises to top what Kibaki has done. And more
importantly, someone who has played on the national stage.
That person is not
Peter Kenneth. Not in this election.
While it’s a good thing that Kenyans are focusing a
lot more on the issues this year than in previous elections, the voting
patterns are more likely to be informed by ethnic considerations. That is a
cold, hard fact.
And that is why we’re looking very closely at the IEBC
numbers on registered voters to predict how people are likely to vote. And in a
race that includes two of the biggest ethnic chiefs, Raila Odinga and Uhuru
Kenyatta, Peter Kenneth does not have a snowball’s chance in hell of winning
this election.
But can he actually ascend to the highest office in
the land at some point?
Well, when hell freezes over and…
Heheh, just kidding!
Seriously though, I think that whoever wins this
election will make a bid to defend his presidency in five years time. That
could prove to be another bruising battle. Kenneth might not stand a chance in
that election either, unless the incumbent is an idiot and finds a way to
really screw up at his job!
But in ten years time? Absolutely!
Kenya might be a different country, with a different
political landscape. Tribal arithmetic will still be important, for sure, but
we’ll have a whole generation of new voters who will be more focused on the
ability of a candidate to deliver on the issues, rather than which tribal
constituency they command.
I suspect we’re witnessing the rise of Peter Kenneth’s
political star on the national stage and if he stays relevant in the public
eye, and plays his cards right (you know, like not do something really stupid that we might remember during
election time) I would not be
surprised if the person taking the oath of office in 2022 (2023?) is
President-Elect Kenneth.
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| "Wait... what? I only got one mention in this article?" |
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I have been asked repeatedly for the last year or so
who I am voting for. My answer is simple.
I am not voting for anyone who ran for president in
2007.
And neither am I voting for anyone who will lose this
election.
